Fantasy Football Mock Draft ADP Report: Clyde Edwards-Helaire up, Cam Akers down
Using the Average Draft Position (ADP) from fictional drafts when drafting your fantasy football team is helpful, but it comes with a caveat: you need to know what ADP is derived from, in particular. especially the period of time it covers. When there is breaking news, we can see a player drop or rise significantly over their current ADP, and if you sleep asleep you will either miss someone or draft someone way too soon.
Things can change quickly in the month leading up to the season, and even without preseason games 2020 will be no different. We will continue to study the fake data from the project and report here weekly on the biggest drivers of ADP.
Fantasy Football Simulation Project: Risers ADP
With the withdrawal of Damien Williams from the Chiefs’ season, the Clyde Edwards-Helaire the hype has gone to hyperdrive. CEH’s ADP before the announcement was 29 on NFFC out of 438 draft from 12 teams. In the 16 draft since, his ADP has risen to 7.63. Last year Josh Jacobs had an ADP of 33.1 per Fantasy Football Calculator. The last two rookie running backs to hit the ADP in the first round were Saquon Barkley in 2018 and Ezekiel Elliot in 2016. The difference? Both were top-rated running backs being selected to be the center of their team’s offense.
Kansas City took on Edwards-Helaire to be a complementary return to Williams in an attack with a focus on passing. He was taken past three running backs who were seeded before the draft along with Jonathan Taylor, DeAndre Swift and JK Dobbins. With his ADP reaching the middle of the first round, he was drafted ahead of Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders and Nick Chubb. It’s up to you to take that risk.
On the other end of the spectrum is Deebo Samuel. Samuel suffered a Jones fracture in mid-June and underwent surgery to repair it. The typical recovery time for this injury is six to eight weeks without surgery, but athletes typically undergo surgery to speed up the process. The difficulty with this fracture is that it is in an area of poor blood supply, which can slow down the healing process. Kevin Durant suffered the same injury and ended up undergoing three surgeries in six months due to complications. Samuel’s 94 ADP (WR38) since surgery is optimistic. Yes, you might want to run the risk that he’ll come back soon and only miss a few games, but taking him ahead of Jamison Crowder, Emmanuel Sanders, and Christian Kirk can make you miss some stable producers. If Samuel has an extended absence, your bench production is likely to suffer.
With the news of Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns withdrawing due to Covid concerns, look for a trio of Dolphin wide receivers to increase in ADP. Preston Williams is recovering from an ACL tear suffered last season but has just obtained full clearance for football activities. His ADP over the past week is 146, but he was gone as early as the 99th. Expect its stock to increase in the coming weeks. Isaiah Ford and Jakeem grant are the other two that should benefit from the ads. Keep an eye out for news from the Dolphins’ camp, but with the extended use of wide threesomes and the injury bug ever present, they could see a big increase in their shot count.
Fantasy Football Mock Draft: ADP Fallers
Taking an ADP hit was Cam Akers with the announcement that the Rams will go with the dreaded RBBC. Prior to Sean McVay’s July 21 statement that the Rams were going to try to copy Kyle Shanahan’s approach, Akers’ ADP was 50. In drafts since he dropped to 56, and I’m wait until it drops further. As a corollary, the ADP of Darrell henderson has moved up one lap as his shots are now expected to increase from before the announcement. Akers is still the best bet to gain control of the backfield, as Henderson and Malcolm brown failed to gain control last year during Todd Gurley’s absence. Remember to take Jordan howard, which is taken after Akers if you don’t want to risk it.
Stay on the theme of rams, Tyler higbee is another uplifting ADP tale. Its production last year was mainly due to the lack of Gerald Everett. When they both played, Everett was by far the most targeted receiver. Higbee currently became TE6 in the past month with an ADP of 83 overall. Everett’s ADP is 208 and should be higher than that. It could easily be a bargain and bust story. Higbee has gone from under four targets per game to 11-14 in the past four games. His number of snaps has gone from 55 to 65 percent to around 90. He’s drafted as if Everett didn’t exist. I would temper your expectations.